Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 12.353285 14.142723 16.071113 18.300109 20.801806 23.519064 26.689985
2025-05-18 9.558553 11.945280 14.718334 18.163670 22.313675 27.134658 33.141383
2025-05-25 8.291471 10.958146 14.207678 18.431343 23.745335 30.176063 38.510137
2025-06-01 7.183488 9.990630 13.562223 18.396224 24.717929 32.648209 43.284657
2025-06-08 6.288137 9.148683 12.928939 18.228958 25.395470 34.666644 47.469867
2025-06-15 5.668510 8.591932 12.590018 18.375479 26.434328 37.147377 52.325761
2025-06-22 5.276184 8.298429 12.560937 18.905478 27.978851 40.332888 58.233339
2025-06-29 4.727109 7.714124 12.057779 18.705538 28.461084 42.057563 62.191434
2025-07-06 4.070559 6.897658 11.138598 17.814160 27.867530 42.209150 63.909960
2025-07-13 3.832852 6.704528 11.126321 18.251810 29.215937 45.160353 69.718331
2025-07-20 3.597924 6.490490 11.058223 18.586683 30.411287 47.924311 75.355545
2025-07-27 3.303462 6.148505 10.757187 18.527225 30.984579 49.773637 79.698261
2025-08-03 2.990744 5.752007 10.345696 18.274969 31.260463 51.216328 83.546908
2025-08-10 2.761018 5.478463 10.114792 18.297243 31.966855 53.344480 88.532987
2025-08-17 2.588779 5.289759 10.008312 18.510037 32.977981 55.972622 94.380613
2025-08-24 2.395567 5.043030 9.780051 18.494653 33.601927 58.002731 99.356444
2025-08-31 2.197171 4.766379 9.475082 18.319652 33.936999 59.567350 103.632681
2025-09-07 2.063958 4.603227 9.360932 18.469281 34.824321 62.056843 109.488515
2025-09-14 1.992635 4.556766 9.457425 19.000810 36.395299 65.733948 117.425523
2025-09-21 1.833890 4.315589 9.167359 18.800276 36.657550 67.217047 121.760655
2025-09-28 1.608552 3.911186 8.530371 17.904745 35.617236 66.426750 122.218245
2025-10-05 1.551611 3.864669 8.593255 18.344421 37.025957 69.906697 130.074472
2025-10-12 1.487112 3.795127 8.603930 18.680800 38.255369 73.115005 137.569579